Price of corn

The price of corn in the United States is estimated to reach $4.29 per bushel in 2026, marking a 2.4% rebound from 2025 as growers respond to prior-year yield weakness with higher harvested acreage and stronger production. Subdued export demand, weighed down by retaliatory tariffs from major buyers such as China, keeps more grain onshore and contributes to a relatively well-supplied domestic market, limiting upward price momentum even as inventories normalize.

From 2021 to 2026, corn prices swung sharply before ultimately retreating, producing a 4.1% compound annual decline over the period. Prices surged in 2021 and 2022 as the post-pandemic recovery boosted ethanol blending and animal feed use while drought, tight stocks and logistics bottlenecks constrained supply, driving consecutive double-digit increases. As growing conditions improved and domestic production recovered in 2023, prices began to fall, with the downtrend intensifying in 2024 when higher yields rebuilt stocks despite slower production growth. At the same time, shrinking demand for high-fructose corn syrup and other artificial sweeteners, alongside shifting consumer preferences, eroded one structural demand pillar.

Broader agricultural and policy dynamics amplified this volatility. Prices of close substitutes such as soybeans, wheat and sorghum moved broadly in tandem because feed buyers could switch among grains, reinforcing swings in corn demand. Trade measures, including tariffs on US corn, constrained exports and periodically swelled domestic inventories, while the link between ethanol output and corn use exposed growers to movements in energy markets. After peaking at record levels early in the period, the combination of improving yields, softer export channels and evolving food and sweetener consumption patterns pushed corn prices lower on average through 2026.