Percentage of smokers

The percentage of smokers in the country is projected to drop by 7.1% in 2025, reaching 9.4% of the population. This marks a continuation of the long-term downward trend. The ongoing decline in smoking rates is being driven by increasing public resistance to cigarettes, extensive health campaigns, and stricter government regulations that limit smoking in both public and private settings. Major states, such as Indiana, have recently enacted substantial tax hikes on cigarette purchases—for example, Indiana raised its cigarette tax by 200.0%, with the generated revenue allocated to address state budget deficits.

Over the five years to 2025, the percentage of smokers has fallen with a CAGR drop of 5.4%. This period has been characterized by sustained efforts at the federal, state, and local levels to control tobacco use, including increasing tobacco taxes and tougher restrictions on advertising and sales. Public awareness initiatives detailing the health risks of smoking have reinforced these policies. During this time, deviations from the long-term downward trend were minimal. In 2020 and 2021, smoking rates declined at a significantly faster pace than in previous years, as the increased mortality risk COVID-19 posed to smokers likely drove a larger share of the population to give up smoking. However, these sharp declines in smoking were followed by slight increases in 2022 and 2023, as the average rate of decline regressed towards the slower long-term reduction trend observed prior to the pandemic. Additional macroeconomic factors, such as higher disposable incomes and increased educational attainment, have supported health-conscious consumer behaviors, including lower smoking rates.

By 2025, the cumulative impact of these government interventions, public health messaging, and broader socioeconomic changes has resulted in a marked decline in smoking rates. The continued publishing of research regarding the risks associated with smoking, alongside expanded access to cessation services, has further deterred smoking initiation. Policymakers' ongoing focus on regulating cigarette availability and promoting preventative health measures has been integral to maintaining and accelerating the decrease in smoking prevalence.