Number of vehicle accidents

In 2026, the number of road accidents is projected to increase 0.4%, although tighter regulation should cap more severe growth. Persistent infrastructure problems, particularly potholes and uneven road quality, will continue to challenge drivers, with mitigation efforts varying by state as funding levels diverge. The rollout of vehicles offering Level 3 autonomy will broaden consumer access to advanced driver-assistance features, helping reduce human error for buyers who adopt these models. However, take-up will remain constrained by the removal of certain electric vehicle tax credits, which will dampen demand for battery electric models and limit the overall safety gains these technologies might otherwise deliver.

During the five years to 2025, the number of vehicle accidents has exhibited significant volatility. In 2020, pandemic-related travel restrictions and reduced commuter activity precipitated a dramatic decline of 22.3% in accidents, with the annual figure dropping to 5.3 million. As pandemic-related restrictions eased, traffic volumes rebounded sharply, leading to a significant surge in 2021 with accidents increasing by 16.2% to 6.1 million. This abrupt increase was partly due to the rapid re-mobilization of the population and decreased driving experience among some groups following the lull in road use. Accident totals moderated in subsequent years, decreasing by 2.8% in 2022 and a further 0.9% in 2023 as travel habits stabilized and road users adjusted to post-pandemic traffic conditions. In 2024, accidents edged upward by 1.5% as economic activity supported greater vehicle use. Despite these safety efforts, other persistent risks, such as distracted driving and inclement weather events, continued to challenge national road safety outcomes. Macroeconomic factors such as employment rates and overall economic activity also influenced miles driven, thereby affecting accident frequency. Public safety campaigns and governmental infrastructure investment played a moderating role, but these measures have had to contend with countervailing trends like higher traffic volumes and changes in commuting patterns.

Over the 2021 to 2026 period, the overall number of vehicle accidents increased at an average annualized rate of 0.4%, encompassing both the low in 2021 and the subsequent rebound in travel and economic activity. Infrastructure enhancements and new safety technologies have worked to offset rising accident risk from greater road usage.