Marriage rate

The US marriage rate is expected to fall to 5.8 marriages per 1,000 people in 2025, continuing a downward trend from a recent high of 6.2 in 2022. This decline reflects a return to long-term trends after a brief post-pandemic recovery. Changing societal attitudes toward marriage and increased cohabitation, especially among younger demographics, are primary factors in this decrease. Elevated economic uncertainty in 2025 also likely dampens couples' willingness to marry.

From 2020 to 2025, the marriage rate demonstrated volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery. In 2020, the rate fell sharply by 16.4% due to postponed weddings from travel restrictions and venue closures. This was followed by rebounds in 2021 and 2022, with increases of 17.6% and 3.3%, as postponed ceremonies took place. However, this surge was short-lived; by 2023, the rate began to contract, dropping 1.6%, and continued declining in 2024 and 2025 as pent-up demand dissipated. This pattern shows the temporary impact of pandemic disruptions, with structural drivers resurfacing.

Macro trends applied downward pressure during this period. Rising labor force participation and earnings among women altered household dynamics, while cultural shifts reduced marriage's perceived necessity. Attitudes toward marriage changed significantly, with a record 20.0% of adults never having married. An aging population and high divorce rates contributed to fewer new marriages. Increased contraceptive use and declining male labor force participation weakened traditional marriage drivers, particularly among men aged 25 to 34.

Despite a 2.6% increase from 2020 to 2025, the marriage rate's long-term decline resumed in 2024 and 2025, showing macro-level social and demographic factors as dominant influences.