Access to credit

Access to credit is anticipated to reach $12,942 trillion in 2025, reflecting a 4.1% annual growth rate over the previous year. This growth has been driven by actions from the Trump Administration, such as rolling back oversight from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)—which was originally designed to protect consumers from exploitative financial practices—thereby deregulating financial markets and making it easier for banks to offer credit, even though these decisions carry some risks. At the same time, the rapid expansion of fintech, especially in digital and crypto-based lending, has further increased access to credit, as more borrowing options have emerged from nontraditional sources that have thrived in this more relaxed regulatory environment.

Access to credit expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% between 2020 and 2025. The initial phase, particularly in 2021, saw contraction, with the value of credit declining by 0.3% due to the pandemic, conservative lending, and subdued economic activity. Credit rebounded strongly in 2022 with a 9.1% annual growth rate, coinciding with global economic recovery and supportive fiscal and monetary policies that boosted lending. Subsequent years saw steady growth in credit volumes, underpinned by both pent-up demand and gradual normalization of lending practices as pandemic disruptions eased. The growth of private credit—from $1.0 trillion in 2020 to around $1.5 trillion by early 2024—exemplifies structural shifts in credit markets, as borrowers were drawn to the flexibility and speed offered by private lenders compared to traditional banks.

Technological innovation continued to shape the credit landscape, with fintech solutions increasing access for historically underserved populations, such as small businesses and youth-owned enterprises. Alternative credit scoring and digital platforms lowered barriers for these groups. Regulatory environments evolved during this period, with reforms aimed at strengthening risk controls while encouraging competition and inclusion. Changes in interest rates, collateral requirements, and repayment terms further influenced credit access, with monetary tightening sometimes constraining availability while periods of easing stimulated lending.

Overall, from 2020 to 2025, access to credit has demonstrated resilience and growth, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery, rapid proliferation of digital lending solutions, and evolving credit models that have enabled greater financial inclusion. These trends collectively supported expanding credit availability despite headwinds related to economic uncertainty and ongoing regulatory adjustments. This has resulted in a CAGR growth of 4.3% over the five years to 2025.