Total mass of exports by sea

IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of exports by sea to decrease by 0.3% in 2025-26, to reach 38.68 million metric tonnes. Forestry products, including logs, sawn timber and sleepers, wood pulp, panels and wood chips, represent New Zealand's largest export segment by mass within the primary industries. Processed wood exports have held their momentum, supported by consistent offshore demand. Log exports, however, tell a different story. With around 90% of New Zealand's logs and poles shipped to China in the year to June 2024, according to the latest wood product markets data, the slowdown in China's property market has sharply reduced purchasing activity. This decline in Chinese demand has reduced the total volume of sea exports in 2025-26. Rising demand from overseas markets, supported by growing disposable incomes in middle-income economies, particularly for dairy products like milk and cheese, has partly offset this slump. Favourable growing conditions and stronger global interest in health-focused horticultural goods, including kiwifruit, apples and pears, have moderated losses elsewhere. Kiwifruit exports have boomed as a result of targeted marketing and coordinated sales efforts.

Trade policy uncertainty and subdued local economic conditions have contributed to the decline in the total mass of exports by sea over the period. Forestry products have consistently made up more than half of New Zealand's total mass of exports by sea. However, their share has gradually declined, becoming the primary driver of the overall decrease in export volumes. Harvest levels were particularly strong in 2020-21, with the Ministry for Primary Industries (Manatu Ahu Matua) reporting a 19% rise in export value compared with 2019-20. Infrastructure stimulus measures in China and the United States supported this surge. In more recent years, however, this momentum has weakened.

Geopolitical tensions have constrained growth. Conflict in the Middle East during 2023-24 and 2024-25 disrupted trade routes. Vessels diverted away from the Red Sea, a critical corridor for shipments bound for Europe, resulting in higher total freight costs in alternative channels. Logistical pressures at home compounded these challenges. Congestion and operational delays at major New Zealand ports have slowed export throughput. According to the International Container Lines Committee, average ship productivity across the country's four largest ports declined from 68 moves per hour in the first quarter of 2018-19 to 55 moves per hour in 2024-25, representing a nearly 20% decrease.

New Zealand's major export markets, in terms of volume, include China, Australia, the United States, Japan and South Korea. China remains the largest market, but its demand for forestry products has fallen sharply in recent years. The property downturn, which began in 2021 with the collapse of developer Evergrande, along with tighter borrowing rules, has reduced real estate investment and construction activity, dampening log imports. The removal of tariffs on milk powder in January 2024 has, however, supported growth in dairy exports to China. By contrast, exports to the United States have strengthened, boosted by a strong US dollar and rising consumer demand. Stats NZ data shows that in 2024, the United States overtook Australia to become New Zealand's second-largest export market. US demand for dairy products, particularly butter, milk and whey, has continued to rise and the November 2025 removal of tariffs on key exports, including kiwifruit, is expected to further support growth. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of exports by sea to decline at a compound annual rate of 1.1% over the five years through 2025-26.