Population aged between 15 and 45

IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged between 15 and 45 to reach 2,279,600 people in 2025-26, representing a rise of 1.3% on the previous year. Growth in the size of this age demographic is expected to be driven by high migration levels, especially after the New Zealand Government eased the migration rules in an attempt to attract more skilled migrants in 2023. These migrants tend to be in the age group 25-45, which is set to drive strong growth in population aged 15 to 45. After trending downward over the past few decades, this age group has risen as a proportion of the overall population in the past five years, accounting for an estimated 42.1% of the population in 2025-26.

Prior to the pandemic, New Zealand was benefitting from relatively strong real GDP growth. This strong economic performance encouraged individuals from overseas to migrate to the country in search of employment opportunities. However, net migration, which also typically drives growth in the size this age group, was subdued because of the New Zealand Government's (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) heavy border restrictions in response to the pandemic. Nevertheless, border restrictions eased throughout 2022, prompting a surge in net migration over the two years through 2023-24. Weaker net migration levels over the past two years have led to a corresponding slowing of growth in the population aged between 15 and 45. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged between 15 and 45 to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.6% over the five years through 2024-25.