Population aged 14 and younger

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to rise by 0.1% during 2025-26, to total 974,000 people. This growth is expected to primarily result from high rate of migration during the year. Many workers and migrants that emigrate to New Zealand have families which include children under 14 years of age, who are typically also granted visas. In recent years, the New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) has eased migration rules in an attempt to lure skilled migrants to fill gaps in the labour market. The number of births is also forecast to rise during the year, boosting the population aged 14 and younger during the year.

The New Zealand Government's COVID-19 border restrictions led to an unprecedented collapse in net migration in 2020-21 and 2021-22. This led to a decline in the population aged 14 and younger. Moreover, over the longer term, the birth rate is declining, while the population in general is rising. This means that the population aged 14 and younger has shrunk as a share of the total New Zealand population. This population segment is estimated to represent 18.0% of the New Zealand population in 2025-26, down from 19.0% in 2020-21. This trend is also a product of an ageing population, and expanding life expectancy in New Zealand. However, the population aged 14 and younger inched down in 2024-25, with significant declines in the number of two-year-olds and 11-year-olds. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged 14 and younger to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.1% over the five years through 2025-26.