Business Environment Profiles - New Zealand
Population
Published: 25 August 2025
Key Metrics
Population
Total (2026)
5408407 People
Annualized Growth 2021-26
1.2 %
Definition of Population
This report analyses the estimated resident population of New Zealand. The estimated resident population refers to all the people who usually live in New Zealand on a given date. The data from this report is sourced from Statistics New Zealand (Tatauranga Aotearoa) and is measured in people residing in New Zealand at the end of each financial year.
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Recent Trends – Population
IBISWorld expects the population of New Zealand to increase 1.5% during 2025-26, to total 5,408,407 people. This is expected to primarily be driven by rebounding net migration, with the number of births only expected to tick up slightly during the year. Net migration is set to climb following reforms to the Accredited Employer Work Visa by the New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa).
Population growth tanked since reaching 5.0 million people in 2019-20. Global migration flow collapsed during the pandemic, a situation that was accentuated by the New Zealand Government's border restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As pandemic restrictions wound down, including in New Zealand, net migration has rebounded strongly, which has driven an uptick in population growth since 2022-23. In December 2023, net migration was running at record highs. These levels could not be sustained, slowing population growth in 2024-25.
Over the past five years, the population of New Zealand has risen, albeit at a slower rate than the preceding decade. Over the longer term, improving medical technology and advances in healthcare have driven an increase in the life expectancy of New Zealand residents. This trend has driven an increase in the number of people aged 65 and over. However, this growth has been limited by declines in the New Zealand birth rate. Additionally, New Zealand's strong economy and pristine environment made the country a desirable destination for migration, supporting high levels of net migration until the COVID-19 pandemic. The extraordinary situation during the pandemic, including the extended closure of New Zealand's international border, led to an unprecedented collapse in net migration. Nevertheless, New Zealand remains an attractive destination for migrants, which has underpinned a sharp rebound in migration levels as border restrictions were lifted. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the population of New Zealand to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.2% over the five years through 2025-26.
5-Year Outlook – Population
IBISWorld forecasts the population of New Zealand will reach 5,498,422 people in 2026-27, an incr...
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