Number of school students

IBISWorld forecasts the number of school students to creep up by 0.03% in 2025-26 to reach 861,016 students. While the number of students attending school has increased in the past five years, growth has been constrained by a challenging demographic landscape. A decline in birth rates over the past decade and a recent reversal in net migration, initially dampened by the COVID-19 pandemic, have limited growth in the population aged 14 and under, affecting the number of students. However, positive developments are taking place. An increasing secondary school retention rate, particularly in the final years, contributes to student numbers. Additionally, steady growth in Maori students attending school is another encouraging trend.

Formal education remains compulsory for those aged 6 to 16, encouraging high overall enrolment. Outside this age bracket, attending school becomes optional but remains free for those aged 5 to 19. These final years of secondary education focus on obtaining the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA), available at three levels. While a recent growth in unemployment might incentivise some working-age students to leave school earlier, the projected continued rise in the secondary school retention rate through 2025-26 suggests student numbers will increase in the coming years. Furthermore, public funding for primary and secondary education is forecast to grow over the past few years, including a $2.93 billion investment over four years since 2024, which was set out in the New Zealand Budget 2024. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of school students to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2025-26.