Number of births

IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to rise by 0.4% in 2025-26 to 58,805. The birth rate is expected to grow slightly in 2025-26, maintaining the strong growth from 2024-25. Expansions in household income and consumer sentiment are expected to persuade more parents to have children. While the number of births is expected to increase slightly in 2025-26, the fertility rate is set to remain between 1.8 and 1.9, well below the required population growth replacement rate of 2.1.

According to Statistics New Zealand, the total fertility rate declined to its lowest on record in 2023, to 1.56 births per woman, well down from the 2.19 births per woman reached in 2007-08. While this figure has recovered to 1.83 in 2024-25, it's clear that many couples are opting to start their families later in life and having fewer children compared to historical averages, pushing down the total fertility rate. Between 2014-15 and 2024-25, children born to mothers aged 20-29 have decreased by 16.0%, while children born to mothers aged 30-39 have increased by 22.8%.

Cultural changes have contributed to the decline in the number of births over the past decade. More women are choosing to enter and remain in the workforce and seek education, which tends to reduce the number of children these individuals have. This trend has been magnified over the past five years, as cost-of-living pressures have meant women have increasingly opted to remain in the workforce to avoid the added financial burden of raising a child.

In addition, social education surrounding contraception has become more wide reaching, resulting in more women accessing and using contraceptive methods. This is demonstrated in the sharp decline in fertility rate for women under 30. In particular, births by teenagers have become less common, dropping by over 41.0% over the decade through 2024-25, according to Statistics New Zealand. In addition, the steady decline of infant mortality rates has resulted in couples having fewer babies, contributing to the declining total fertility rate. Due to the declining total fertility rate, the number of births has only marginally increased over the past five years, supported by population growth.

Over the past five years, the number of births in New Zealand has been relatively volatile. Initially, the pandemic constrained net migration, placing downwards pressure on birth rates in 2020-21. However, the pandemic also drove a baby boom in 2021-22, when births jumped by 5.3% to 60,144, marking the highest figure since 2015-16. However, the boom was short-lived, as over the two years through 2023-24 births dropped to their lowest since 2003-04, primarily due to economic uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to increase at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025-26.