Meat consumption

IBISWorld expects meat consumption to rise by 0.2% in 2025-26, reaching 51.7 kilograms per capita. Both pork and poultry consumption are expected to increase in 2025-26. Meanwhile, rising instances of vegetarianism and veganism in New Zealand will continue to constrain overall meat consumption, a trend that is anticipated to hinder growth in meat consumption in the current year. On average, New Zealanders are expected to consume an estimated 8.3 kilograms of beef, 2.1 kilograms of sheep meat, 16.2 kilograms of pork and 25.0 kilograms of poultry meat per capita in 2025-26.

According to the OECD and the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN, meat consumption has been declining over the long run, peaking at 75.2 kilograms per capita in 1994-95. A range of factors influence per capita meat consumption, including price and consumer preferences. An increasing number of consumers engaging in vegan and meat-free diets has contributed to the decline in per capita meat consumption over the past decade. Long-term growth in consumer health consciousness has also contributed to a decline in red meat consumption, with consumers increasingly opting for leaner sources of protein, such as chicken.

Declines in meat consumption over the past five years have largely been driven by climbing meat prices. A number of factors have contributed to expansions in the prices of sheep meat, poultry and beef. High inflation in the New Zealand economy post-pandemic has pushed up the consumer price index at some of the highest annual rates since the late 1980s. This inflationary trend has been evident in spikes in meat prices at supermarkets, turning consumers away from meat consumption. Strong demand for New Zealand meat in export markets has also put upwards pressure on domestic meat prices, exacerbating inflationary impacts on retail prices. Annual per capita beef, sheep meat and poultry consumption are all expected to decline between 2020-21 and 2025-26, while pork consumption is set to climb, partially offsetting the aggregate decline in overall meat consumption. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts meat consumption to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2025-26.