Domestic price of plastic and rubber products

The domestic price of plastic and rubber products is forecast to rise by 2.0% in 2025-26, reaching 130.5 index points. Growth this year reflects lingering cost pressures tied to crude oil and natural rubber, which remain critical inputs for manufacturers. Although energy prices have stabilised compared to the 2022 peaks, they support relatively high production costs. At the same time, a still-soft New Zealand dollar keeps imported products expensive for local buyers, limiting the extent of price relief across downstream markets.

Over the past five years, prices have swung from sharp increases to more stable growth. Early on, shortages of resins, high oil prices and shipping delays lifted costs for packaging, construction plastics and automotive parts. Rubber product makers also faced higher natural rubber costs, increasing tyre and hose prices. While supply chains and energy markets have since steadied, prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels. For downstream industries, this means persistently high packaging costs, elevated building inputs and limited relief in tyre prices.

Across the five years through 2025-26, the domestic price of plastic and rubber products is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 5.5%. This reflects the industry's shift from exceptional, disruption-led increases to more inflation-aligned gains. Packaging converters, automotive component makers and construction suppliers are now operating with greater cost predictability, allowing them to stabilise pricing strategies and manage contracts more accurately. However, reliance on crude-oil-derived resins and imported natural rubber continues to expose local manufacturers to swings in global energy and commodity markets, meaning cost volatility remains an embedded risk in the industry's operating environment.