Beef and veal production

IBISWorld forecasts beef and veal production to rise by 0.9% in 2025-26, to reach 728.3 kilotonnes. Output is set to rise following a down year in 2024-25, supported by a modest rebound in slaughter volumes as farmers rebuild their herds after low bull and cow slaughter numbers constrained output. In 2025-26, a larger beef cattle herd and strong global demand, particularly from the United States, is encouraging farmers to send more cattle to processors. Tightening global supply and falling US production has helped lift demand in export markets, further supporting a recovery in domestic production.

Weather conditions influence beef and veal production. Years of low rainfall can cause pasture quality to suffer, raising feed costs for beef cattle farmers. In response to rising costs, farmers may reduce herd sizes, which can boost production in the short term but reduce it in future years.

Overall, IBISWorld anticipates beef and veal production to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.2% over the five years through 2025-26, largely driven by lower slaughter rates across key categories like steers, bulls and cows in 2024-25, where total cattle slaughter fell by 3.5%. Several factors contributed to this trend, including weaker profitability, which reduced the number of dairy-beef bulls entering the processing pipeline and tight livestock availability. Farmers also retained more calves to rebuild dairy herds or respond to shifts in demand. Strong demand for New Zealand beef in export markets, particularly from China and the United States, has supported export and domestic beef prices over the past five years. However, environmental regulations introduced during this period, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, discouraged farmers from rebuilding herds and, in some cases, encouraged them to leave the industry.