Average age of vehicle fleet

IBISWorld forecasts the average age of the vehicle fleet to fall by 0.3% in 2026 to 14.58 years. Rising cost-of-living constraints and high financing prices, fueled by a sticky cash rate, have continued to weigh on new automobile sales in 2025-26, compounding lacklustre demand from individual consumers. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the official cash rate at approximately 3% as of mid-2025, with predictions predicting that it will remain over 2.5% until the end of 2026. This protracted period of relatively high borrowing prices is expected to reduce consumer expenditure on large-ticket products such as automobiles. While the worldwide microprocessor shortage significantly affected supply chains over the threeyears through 2020-2023, the problem has partly subsided. However, persisting logistical issues and cautious modifications by manufacturers have prevented the complete recovery of new car supply in New Zealand in 2024 and 2025, limiting market growth.

These considerations have kept new vehicle sales muted in 2025-26, putting additional upward pressure on the average age of the vehicle fleet, which remains among the oldest globally. The light vehicle fleet's average age increased slightly to over 15 years in 2023, with nearly 44% of vehicles aged 15 years or more, reflecting delayed fleet renewal amid constrained supply and affordability challenges.

As of 2025, light passenger cars account for around 74.8% of the overall fleet, continuing a slow fall from slightly less than 80% a decade earlier. Light commercial vehicles have grown their contribution to roughly 16%, indicating higher purchases and lower average ages than other vehicle classes. This infusion of newer light commercial vehicles has helped to moderate the increase in the average age of the vehicle fleet. Meanwhile, large commercial vehicles, motorbikes, buses, and other vehicle categories account for around 9% of the fleet.

As of 2025-26, New Zealand continues to rely largely on used car imports to satisfy demand, however the proportion of used vehicles in imports has decreased over the last five years. In 2025, used passenger cars accounted for around 38-40% of imported light vehicles, falling from around 42% in 2022. Used trucks accounted for 28-30% of total imports, which was somewhat lower than prior years. This decrease in the share of used vehicle imports has resulted in slower rise in the average age of the vehicle fleet as newer cars join the market. Japan continues to account for the majority of used passenger car imports, accounting for more than 95%, with minor percentages coming from Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Increasing customer desire for certified pre-owned vehicles with warranties, along with an increase in hybrid and electric vehicle imports, is altering the used vehicle industry in New Zealand, encouraging a more diverse fleet. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the average age of the vehicle fleet to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2025-26.