Total vehicle-kilometres

Growth in total vehicle kilometres has largely trended with consumer spending, yet are affected by the price of crude oil. In 2011, for example, the world price of crude oil increased 30.6%. However, over 2014, the price of crude oil dropped by 7.5%, and plunged 47.2% in 2015. This has resulted in only marginal growth in the number of total vehicle-kilometres, as economic uncertainty over the latter half of the five-year period has encouraged higher rates of public transit use and carpooling. Furthermore, with the rise of car-sharing services within urban areas, such as zipcar and Uber, some consumers have chosen to forego vehicle ownership, which has contributed to slower growth in total vehicle kilometres.

Nevertheless, as crude oil prices stabilize, moderated growth in the number total vehicle-kilometres is likely to follow. However, given the dependency many Canadian provinces have on oil companies as large employers, the ongoing volatility in gas prices is expected to result in hiring freezes, layoffs and less investment in the region. While this is expected to affect overall consumer confidence, the overall number of motor vehicle registrations is expected to continue increasing through 2020. This, coupled with declining crude oil prices, kept the total vehicle kilometres growing during the period.

In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic's resulting global shutdowns, consumers reduced their driving and overall travel due to added regulations to reduce risk of spreading or contracting the virus. Conversely, as driving in one's own vehicle incurs a lower exposure risk, a decline in domestic road travel during the shutdowns was moderated by an increase in road travel as the country began opening up. As vaccinations were distributed, overall travel increased, leading to an increase in total kilometres during 2021. This trend continued as the economy opened up during 2022 and 2023. Despite volatile gas prices, the total vehicle-kilometres in 2023 sharply increased as companies pushed for roles to return to in-person and as consumers began looking for affordable housing outside of large city centres. Over the five years to 2025, total vehicle-kilometres is forecast to have increased at a CAGR of 2.6%.