Freight of metallic ores and concentrates

Freight activity for metallic ores in 2026 is projected to increase by 1.1%, reaching 63.1 million metric tons, continuing the weak trend that began in previous years. Downstream demand remains subdued as China's construction and industrial sectors contract, dampening the need for iron and other ores shipped from Canada. The imposition of international tariffs from the US has restrained cross-border shipment volumes, further limiting recovery for metallic ore freight. While domestic construction in Canada is providing some offsetting demand, the loss of a key export market in the US, amplified by new US investment in domestic mining, continues to undermine the potential for broad expansion. Tariff-driven uncertainties and the slow pace of global industrial recovery mean freight carriers remain constrained in their opportunities for growth, relying on niche opportunities in construction and international partners unaffected by tariffs.

From 2021 to 2026, the metallic ore freight market experienced contraction, recovery, and ongoing stagnation. Lingering effects of the pandemic in 2021 caused a dramatic 5.6% drop as global demand collapsed. After restrictions eased and industry normalized, the sector rebounded temporarily in 2022: freight activity rose 6.1% in response to revived mining labor and pent-up demand in construction and manufacturing. However, this growth was unsustainable. By 2023, the market returned to contraction, led by weakening industrial activity in China and the emergence of new trade barriers and policy uncertainty. Technological advances in construction and manufacturing, such as modular and lightweight designs, significantly reduced the reliance on traditional metallic ores, putting additional long-term pressure on freight volumes and rates. Non-metallic minerals outperformed metals due to abundance and simpler extraction. Throughout the five-year period, rising costs, labor shortages, and commodity price volatility compounded the challenges for metallic ore freight carriers, driving a requirement for greater efficiency and supply chain adaptability.

The operating environment has required companies to prioritize supply chain technology upgrades and diversify service offerings to stay resilient. Growing emphasis on sustainability, decarbonization in construction and extraction, and stalled progress on housing projects have all influenced material flows and freight demand. As a result, the compound annual growth rate for metallic ore freight over this period stands at 1.4%.