Value of merchandise trade imports

IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade imports to rise by 4.0% in 2025-26 to $457.4 billion. A range of factors is expected to drive this growth, including increased consumer demand, economic expansion, and a strengthening Australian dollar, which will make imports more affordable. Also, technological advancements and global supply chain improvements are anticipated to boost the availability of imported goods. Continued trade agreements with key international partners like India, Indo-Pacific countries and the United Kingdom will support the growth in merchandise imports.

Merchandise trade imports have experienced significant shifts in recent years, reflecting Australia's economic landscape and global market influences. Import values rebounded strongly over the five years through 2025-26, following the reopening of the economy and the resumption of international trade activities after the pandemic. A crucial factor in driving up import values is the closure of major Australian refineries. In 2021, BP's Kwinana refinery in Western Australia and ExxonMobil's refinery in Victoria were shut down and converted into import terminals. These closures diminished domestic refinery production from over 22,770 million litres in 2020-21 to just over 15,750 in 2021-22. The constrained domestic capacity has contributed to a surge in imported refined petroleum to satisfy domestic demand. Elevated refinery product prices, fuelled by supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, compounded this trend, propelling refined petroleum imports over the past few years. However, as supply conditions stabilised and prices normalised, the rapid growth in import values began to slow down, suggesting a shift towards more consistent and sustainable trade patterns. Overall, the share of total imports from major refined petroleum exporters like Singapore and South Korea has increased over the past few years.

Also, the deterioration of many manufacturing industries over the period has meant that a larger proportion of domestic consumption has been satisfied by imported products. The resulting greater competition as a direct result of higher imports has forced some manufacturers to shift operations outside of Australia or shut down business entirely. This has further driven growth in imports throughout multiple supply chain tiers because of the lack of local competition in manufacturing industries Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade imports to rise at a compound annual rate of 8.2% over the five years through 2025-26.