Value of merchandise trade exports

IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to fall by 3.3% in 2025-26, to an estimated $495.7 billion. This decline is driven largely by falling resources and energy exports, due to an expected slump in natural gas and coal prices. Global energy supply is forecast to continue ramping up, outpacing demand and weakening prices in the current year. According to data from the Resources and Energy Quarterly September 2025 release, gold exports are anticipated to surpass LNG exports thanks to elevated prices and domestic gold miners ramping up production to capitalise on the lucrative prices. Commodity prices like copper and beef are also projected to rise, somewhat constraining the fall in merchandise trade export values. However, the dip in prices of key mining and agricultural commodities like oil and wheat is set to decline during the year, weighing on export values.

Over the past five years, the value of merchandise trade exports has risen, driven by a beneficial global context and growth in domestic production volumes. Mining and agricultural commodities compose the bulk of Australian exports, which means that trends in these sectors dictate the value of merchandise trade exports in Australia. Global supply shocks, driven by a stretched global supply chain and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, led to a surge in demand for Australian mining and agricultural exports. In particular, the value of wheat and LNG exports soared, as many countries scrambled to replace energy and agricultural commodities that were traditionally sourced from Russia or Ukraine. These limitations to global supplies drove up the price of commodity exports in Australia, especially for mining commodities like iron ore and coal, which account for a high proportion of export value. These factors caused the value of merchandise trade exports to peak in 2022-23. As global supply chain conditions improved, commodity prices eased and export values slumped over the two years through 2024-25. Easing commodity prices like oil and gas are also expected to lower export values in 2025-26, contributing to exports declining for three consecutive years.

Within the agriculture sector, many categories like grains have exhibited strong export growth over recent years, buoyed by beneficial prices and record production. Heavy rainfall and bumper crops have contributed to consecutive years of record production volumes in key agricultural commodities in the past few years. A combination of elevated prices and production volumes caused a surge in the contribution of agricultural products to the value of merchandise trade exports over the past five years.

Despite domestic manufacturers generally lacking in export price competitiveness, export demand for Australian food and live animals has increased significantly over recent years. Exports of raw produce and manufactured food products have been boosted by the burgeoning Asian middle classes, particularly within China, as Australian products are often viewed as premium alternatives in these markets. Trade tensions and barriers between the United States and China have also prompted many Chinese consumers to shift their preference from US beef to Australian beef, supporting export growth. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to increase at a compound annual rate of 4.6% over the five years through 2025-26.