Population aged 14 and younger

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to increase by 0.2% during 2025-26, to reach 4,810,220 people. This increase is 0.1 percentage points larger than in 2024-25, driven by a return to growth in the number of births, which had been trending downwards between 2022-23 and 2024-25. More births, combined with healthy migration numbers, will drive up the number of Australian residents aged 14 or below.

Over the past five years, the population aged 14 and younger has trended upwards, albeit at a far slower rate than the average of the past decade. Over the longer term, strong growth in the birth rate since 2008-09 has bolstered the number of people in this age group. An overall increase in net migration prior to COVID-19 pandemic also contributed to steady growth in younger Australians. Ongoing declines in the child mortality rate in Australia is another long-term factor contributing to growth in this population segment.

In 2020-21, the population segment declined for the first time since 1986-87, as net migration was significantly constrained, due to border closures, which prevented many workers and migrants, many of which have young families, from coming to Australia. More recently, cost-of-living pressures have deterred young parents from having children, causing the growth rate in the number of people aged 14 and below to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Housing shortages and high inflation have added further complications, which has weighed on growth in this population segment. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2025-26.