Number of stock market trades

IBISWorld forecasts the number of stock market trades to rise by 19.5% in 2025-26, to 586.3 million. Trading activity is expected to continue to a strong recovery this year, following periods of stalled growth over the since the onset of the pandemic. A gradual improvement of economic conditions, including a drop in the cash rate and an uptick in the value of the All Ords, is set to encourage trading volumes in the current year. However, there are some risks that the labour market softens more than expected, a global trade war negatively impacts the world economy and that AI investment is a bubble, leading to a sharp downwards correction in share prices. A sudden turn in conditions could see a jump in the number of trades in the short-term due to sell-offs but slow down growth again in the second half of 2025-26 or in coming years as investors become more cautious.

Historically, stock market trades have exhibited pretty consistent double-digit growth since 1992. Prior to the pandemic, the number of stock trades only declined in three years, and only failed to achieve double-digit growth in a further five. Since the pandemic, the number of stock trades exhibited its two largest declines since 1992 in 2020-21 and 2022-23. In 2020-21, global economic uncertainty saw many investors hold fire with a slowdown following a surge of sell-off activity late in 2019-20. Booming commodity prices, and economic and policy responses to the pandemic saw the value of the All Ordinaries index climb to a record high in January 2022 benefiting confidence in the value of equities and supporting the number of stock market trades the following. However, nine cash rate increases in 2022-23 amid soaring inflation, and a return to normal spending patterns among consumers post-lockdowns contributed to another steep decline stock market activity. Since then, falling inflation, and cuts to the cash rate have seen the number of stock trades rebound over the two years through 2024-25.

The ASX has capitalised on new technologies by implementing new trading platforms, which have decreased the cost of transactions and increased capacity. Over the past five years, increased accessibility and cheaper transaction fees offered by electronic trading brokerage firms have also significantly driven volume growth. This trend has been offset by the ASX underperforming global indices making it less attractive for investors. Additionally, economic uncertainty has been a drag on activity. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of stock market trades to rise at a compound annual rate of 8.2% over the five years through 2025-26.