Domestic price of wine grapes

IBISWorld expects the domestic price of wine grapes to tumble by 5.3% in 2025-26, to reach $575.0 per tonne. Weak demand and extensive inventories of red wine from previous vintages have kept red wine grape prices low in warm inland regions. White wine grape prices are also projected to decline, thanks to weaker consumer demand. Reduced wine demand has led to an oversupply of wine grapes, which will continue to put downwards pressure on the domestic price of wine grapes in the current year.

Wine producers are wine grape producers' only downstream market, since grapes grown for winemaking are unsuitable for consumption as table or dried grapes. Consequently, demand from wine producers plays a major role in determining wine grape prices. The Chinese government's decision to impose tariffs of up to 212% on Australian wine in November 2020 had a significant impact on demand, particularly for red wine grapes. Demand from wine production plummeted over the past five years through 2025-26, as China was the largest export market and one of the largest markets overall for Australian wine before the tariffs were introduced. Reduced demand and excess supply have weakened wine grape prices over the past few years. The Chinese government removed heavy tariffs on Australian wine in March 2024; however, despite recent recovery, wine consumption and the wine import market in China had already shrunk dramatically over the past few years.

Demand for Australian wine has reduced through the end of 2024-25, alongside demand for wine grapes. Over the past five years, the appreciating Australian dollar and the introduction of export tariffs to China have contributed to weakened export demand, which has cut into domestic wine grape prices. According to Wine Australia, the commercial wine export volume and value have declined over the past few years due to a global oversupply of wines. Wine exports to China have recovered, albeit at levels below pre-tariff peaks. In contrast, the UK, Canada and the United States have all reduced their exports, while other countries, including New Zealand, Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands, have experienced fluctuations. Growing consumer health consciousness and the cost-of-living pressures have constrained wine consumption and placed pressure on domestic wine grape prices downwards. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts domestic wine grape prices to decline at a compound annual rate of 4.0% over the five years through 2025-26.