Domestic price of pig meat

IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of pig meat to hike by 3.9% in 2025-26, to 124.1 index points. Prices are projected to stabilise as input cost constraints are relaxed. Prices for beef and sheep meat have recently grown, making pig meat more appealing compared to these substitutes. High export demand has pushed up prices since 2022-23, owing to rising ingredient prices and strong international demand from countries like Singapore, the Philippines, and New Zealand. The uptick in pig meat consumption during 2025-26 will place upwards pressure on the domestic price of pig meat, alongside these factors.

Domestic pig meat production has fluctuated over the past five years but the overall trend has been positive, driven by sustained international demand and a recovery in major producing countries. Higher feed costs and persistent biosecurity issues, like the African swine fever (ASF) control efforts in Asia and Europe, have had an impact on both supply and market pricing. In recent years, rising consumer demand in North America and South-east Asia, along with evolving trade rules and advancements in herd health management, have impacted production levels and international trade dynamics.

Pig meat consumption in Australia has increased over the past five years. Imports are limited to processed pig meat, and overseas manufacturers can offer lower prices than domestic producers due to economies of scale which are supported by government subsidies. Foreign producers that have greater economies of scale can often provide lower prices than domestic pig meat producers. This trend is particularly true for foreign producers that benefit from government subsidies. However, inflation and climbing pig meat consumption has pushed prices higher. Rising feed and transportation prices, along with wage hikes and increased input costs are prompting farmers to adjust their pricing, passing some of these costs on through higher prices.

In recent years, strong global demand patterns and improving local weather conditions have supported further expansion. African swine flu outbreaks, most notably the original crisis in China, which wiped out more than half of its national herd, continue to distrupt worldwide supply, elevating pig meat prices and demand for exports to China and other affected nations, including those in Asia and parts of Europe. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts domestic pig meat prices to rise at a compound annual rate of 4.2% over the five years through 2025-26.