Beef and veal production

IBISWorld expects beef and veal production to drop by 2.9% during 2025-26 to 2,684.2 kilotonnes, following a significant increase in the previous year. However, it is still expected to exceed early-2020 levels as slaughter activity near decade high levels. A bigger portion of the herd is now mature and market-ready after herd rebuilding between 2020-21 and 2022-23. ABARES expects slaughter numbers to remain above 9 million head in 2025-26, but still fall 2.9% from 2024-25 levels. Carcass weights are also set to fall slightly due to drier weather conditions, further weakening production volumes.

Medium-term production growth was supported by strong processing capacity and attractive export fundamentals. New and expanded processing facilities provided increased potential slaughter capacity from 2024-25. Global market conditions also impact Australian beef and veal production.Global market conditions also support Australian beef. Firm export prices encouraged farmers and processors to maintain high turn-off rates. While overall beef and veal production is set to fall 2.9% during 2025-26, ABARES is forecasting a decline in export volumes of only 2.2%, highlighting strong demand from the US and China in particular. Despite export volumes falling, the value of exports is set to rise, as weak global production has driven up world beef prices.The US beef sector is in the process of rebuilding its herds, while other rivals' supply is limited by drought and legislative limitations. Brazil remains a key competitor, although high effective US tariffs, set at 26.4% at the beginning of 2025 to as much as 76.4% (before falling back to original rates in November) have occasionally undermined Brazilian beef's viability in the US market, creating extra room for Australian goods. Expanded access under trade agreements, like tariff reductions in Asia and the United Kingdom also boosted export demand.

Overall, IBISWorld expects beef and veal output to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.8% over the five years through 2025-26. This growth represents stable herd rebuilding, improved seasonal conditions, and sustained global demand for Australian beef.