Air passenger movements through capital city airports

IBISWorld forecasts the number of air passenger movements through capital city airports to increase by 5.6% during 2025-26, to 139.1 million passenger movements. This result represents strong growth from the year prior, as passenger numbers continue to recover from the pandemic and surpass pre-pandemic levels. Rising discretionary incomes in 2025-26 are expected to support demand. Growth rates have stabilised since 2023-24, owing to cost-of-living pressures and the industry's gradual return to pre-pandemic levels after the rapid rebound recorded from 2020-21 to 2023-24.

Due to the large size of Australia's capital cities relative to the national population, the eight capital city airports make up the vast majority of total air passenger movements in the country. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth constitute more than 85% of capital city air passenger movements. This weighting reflects the large populations of these four cities and their positions as leading business and tourism hubs.

Air passenger movements have risen rapidly since the historic lows of 2020-21, after international air travel was essentially halted by the Federal Government in an attempt to limit COVID-19 case numbers. Domestic air travel volumes also sharply declined due to state border closures. Pent-up demand for leisure and business travel, along with a recovery in international tourism, has driven growth. By 2025-26, passenger movements are set to surpass 2018-19 levels for the first time, resulting from the rebound in travel activity and inbound tourism and growth from population increases. The appreciation of the Australian dollar has limited growth in international arrivals, as travel to Australia has become relatively more expensive. IBISWorld forecasts the number of air passenger movements through capital city airports to climb at a compound annual rate of 35.5% over the five years through 2025-26.