Industry Statistics and Trends
Market size and recent performance (2016-2031)
Industry revenue has declined at a CAGR of 0.1 % over the past five years, to reach an estimated $13.6bn in 2026.
Trends and Insights
Budgetary constraints are leading to a drop in revenue
- Most public elementary and secondary school funding is sourced from state or local government, with the remainder coming from the federal budget. Lower tax receipts, partly caused by weaker spending and rising unemployment, meant that state and local funds for public schools dried up. Since states must keep balanced budgets, reductions in tax receipts resulted in spending cuts, often for K-12 education. Budgetary shortfalls also led bus services to contend with a reduced number of routes and shorter distances.
- Additional trends and insights available with purchase
Source: IBISWorld
Industry outlook (2026-2031)
Market size is projected to decline over the next five years.
Trends and Insights
Improving macroeconomic conditions will boost revenue
- States provide nearly half of the total funding for elementary and secondary schools and receive most of their funding from a combination of income and sales tax revenues. If per capita disposable income rises while unemployment falls, there may be an increase in tax receipts. This could lead to improved profit over the next five years through 2031.
Biggest companies in the Public School Bus Services in the US
| Company | Market Share (%)
2026 | Revenue ($m)
2026 | Profit ($m)
2026 | Profit Margin (%)
2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
National Express Group Plc | 1,774.6 | 10.4 | 0.6 | |
Student Transportation Inc. | 1,502.0 | 8.8 | 0.6 | |
Firstgroup Plc | N/A | N/A | N/A |
To view the market share and analysis for all 3 top companies in this industry, view purchase options.
Products & Services Segmentation
Source: IBISWorld
Industry revenue is measured across several distinct product and services lines, including School busing for public schools, Employee bus services and School busing for private schools. School busing for public schools is the largest segment of the Public School Bus Services in the US.
Trends and Insights
Public school busing market share expands because of government funding
- A typical district consists of several schools, from prekindergarten and elementary to middle and high schools. School bus services provide students with regularly scheduled transportation to and from their schools. Services are provided over a time period determined by a contract with the school district.
- More insights available in the full report
Table of Contents
About this industry
Industry definition
This industry includes companies that primarily provide bus services to students in grades K-12 and school employees. School buses transport students to and from school, as well as between school events, field trips, camps and other educational events. Companies also provide transportation for school employees to and from work.
What's included in this industry?
Products and services covered in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States include Providing home-to-school bus transportation for students, Providing bus transportation for extracurricular activities, School busing for public schools, School busing for private schools and Employee bus services.Companies
Companies covered in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States include National Express Group Plc, Student Transportation Inc. and Firstgroup Plc.Purchase this report to view all 3 major companies in this industry.
Related Terms
Related terms covered in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States include fleet management software, outsource and privatization.Industry Code
NAICS 48541 - Public School Bus Services in the US
Performance
Get an indication of the industry's health through historical, current and forward-looking trends in the performance indicators that make or break businesses.
Analyst insights
School bus services are facing significant challenges because of budgetary constraints. Without more funding, service providers may reduce routes and convince users to seek a...
In this chapter (4)
- Current Performance
- Outlook
- Volatility
- Life Cycle
Key metrics
- Annual Revenue, Recent Growth, Forecast, Revenue Volatility
- Number of Employees, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Employee
- Number of Businesses, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Business
- Total Profit, Profit Margin, Profit per Business
Charts
- Revenue, including historical (2016-2025) and forecast (2026-2031)
- Employees, including historical (2016-2025) and forecast (2026-2031)
- Businesses, including historical (2016-2025) and forecast (2026-2031)
- Profit, including historical (2016-2026)
- Industry Volatility vs. Revenue Growth
- Industry Life Cycle
Detailed analysis
- Trends in supply, demand and current events that are driving current industry performance
- Expected trends, economic factors and ongoing events that drive the industry's outlook
- Key success factors for businesses to overcome volatility
- How contribution to GDP, industry saturation, innovation, consolidation, and technology and systems influence the industry's life cycle phase.
Products and Markets
Learn about an industry's products and services, markets and trends in international trade.
Analyst insight
Daimler has already raised the prices of its buses because of tariffs. While EV grants may offset some costs, broader tariff impacts could slow down fleet electrification eff...
In this chapter
- Products & Services
- Major Markets
Key metrics
- Largest market segment and value in 2026
- Product innovation level
Charts
- Products & services segmentation in 2026
- Major market segmentation in 2026
Detailed analysis
- Trends impacting the recent performance of the industry's various segments
- Innovations in the industry's product or service offering, specialization or delivery method
- Key factors that successful businesses consider in their offerings
- Buying segments and key trends influencing demand for industry products and services
Geographic Breakdown
Discover where business activity is most concentrated in an industry and the factors driving these trends to find opportunities and conduct regional benchmarking.
Analyst insights
The Mid-Atlantic region has the largest concentration of school bus companies because of its high population density and urbanization. This leads to a large customer base and...
In this chapter (1)
- Business Locations
Charts
- Share of revenue, establishment, wages and employment in each state
- Share of population compared to establishments in each region in 2026
Tables
- Number and share of establishments in each state in 2026
- Number and share of revenue each state accounts for in 2026
- Number and share of wages each state accounts for in 2026
- Number and share of employees in each state in 2026
Detailed analysis
- Geographic spread of the industry across North America, and trends associated with changes in the business landscape
- Key success factors for businesses to use location to their advantage
Competitive Forces
Get data and insights on what's driving competition in an industry and the challenges industry operators and new entrants may face, with analysis built around Porter's Five Forces framework.
Analyst insights
Many states outsource school transportation to private service providers. This offers varied entry success for new businesses. Smaller bus service providers often lack the su...
In this chapter (4)
- Concentration
- Barriers to Entry
- Substitutes
- Buyer & Supplier Analysis
Key metrics
- Industry concentration level
- Industry competition level and trend
- Barriers to entry level and trend
- Substitutes level and trend
- Buyer power level and trend
- Supplier power level and trend
Charts
- Market share concentration among the top 4 suppliers from 2021-2026
- Supply chain including upstream supplying industries and downstream buying industries, flow chart
Detailed analysis
- Factors impacting the industry’s level of concentration, such as business distribution, new entrants, or merger and acquisition activity.
- Key success factors for businesses to manage the competitive environment of the industry.
- Challenges that potential industry entrants face such as legal, start-up costs, differentiation, labor/capital intensity and capital expenses.
- Key success factors for potential entrants to overcome barriers to entry.
- Competitive threats from potential substitutes for the industry’s own products and services.
- Key success factors for how successful businesses can compete with substitutes.
- Advantages that buyers have to keep favorable purchasing conditions.
- Advantages that suppliers have to maintain favorable selling conditions.
- Key success factors for how businesses can navigate buyer and supplier power.
Companies
Learn about the performance of the top companies in the industry.
Analyst insights
Mobico sold its North American bus business in July 2025 to improve its financial position by boosting liquidity and reducing debt. This strategic move comes as the company s...
In this chapter
- Market Share Concentration
- Companies
- Company Spotlights
Charts
- Industry market share by company in 2022 through 2026
- Major companies in the industry, including market share, revenue, profit and profit margin in 2026
- Overview of National Express Group Plc's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2020 through 2026
- Overview of Student Transportation Inc.'s performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2020 through 2026
- Overview of Firstgroup Plc's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2020 through 2026
Detailed analysis
- Description and key data for National Express Group Plc, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
- Description and key data for Student Transportation Inc., and factors influencing its performance in the industry
- Description and key data for Firstgroup Plc, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
External Environment
Understand the demographic, economic and regulatory factors that shape how businesses in an industry perform.
Analyst insights
Federal regulations require school bus drivers to have a commercial driver's license to ensure passenger safety. These measures are part of the Commercial Motor Vehicle Safet...
In this chapter
- External Drivers
- Regulation & Policy
- Assistance
Key metrics
- Regulation & policy level and trend
- Assistance level and trend
Charts
- Regulation & Policy historical data and forecast (2016-2031)
- Assistance historical data and forecast (2016-2031)
Detailed analysis
- Demographic and macroeconomic factors influencing the industry, including Regulation & Policy and Assistance
- Major types of regulations, regulatory bodies, industry standards or specific regulations impacting requirements for industry operators
- Key governmental and non-governmental groups or policies that may provide some relief for industry operators.
Financial Benchmarks
View average costs for industry operators and compare financial data against an industry's financial benchmarks over time.
Analyst insights
Profit is poised for improvement because of fleet optimization and a shift to in-person schooling. Lower fuel expenses will likely contribute positively to future profit by r...
In this chapter
- Cost Structure
- Financial Ratios
- Key Ratios
Key metrics
- Profit margin, and how it compares to the sector-wide margin
- Average wages, and how it compares to the sector-wide average wage
- Largest cost component as a percentage of revenue
- Industry average ratios for days' receivables, industry coverage and debt-to-net-worth ratio
Charts
- Average industry operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2026
- Average sector operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2026
- Investment vs. share of economy
Data tables
- Industry Multiples (2019-2024)
- Industry Tax Structure (2019-2024)
- Income Statement (2019-2024)
- Balance Sheet (2019-2024)
- Liquidity Ratios (2019-2024)
- Coverage Ratios (2019-2024)
- Leverage Ratios (2019-2024)
- Operating Ratios (2019-2024)
- Cash Flow & Debt Service Ratios (2016-2031)
- Revenue per Employee (2016-2031)
- Revenue per Enterprise (2016-2031)
- Employees per Establishment (2016-2031)
- Employees per Enterprise (2016-2031)
- Average Wage (2016-2031)
- Wages/Revenue (2016-2031)
- Establishments per Enterprise (2016-2031)
- IVA/Revenue (2016-2031)
- Imports/Demand (2016-2031)
- Exports/Revenue (2016-2031)
Detailed analysis
- Trends in the cost component for industry operators and their impact on industry costs and profitability
Key Statistics
Industry Data
Data Tables
Including values and annual change:
- Revenue (2016-2031)
- IVA (2016-2031)
- Establishments (2016-2031)
- Enterprises (2016-2031)
- Employment (2016-2031)
- Exports (2016-2031)
- Imports (2016-2031)
- Wages (2016-2031)
Top Questions Answered
Unlock comprehensive answers and precise data upon purchase. View purchase options.
What is the market size of the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States in 2026?
The market size of the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States is $13.6bn in 2026.
How many businesses are there in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States in 2026?
There are 11,195 businesses in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States, which has grown at a CAGR of 5.5 % between 2021 and 2026.
How may import tariffs affect the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States?
The Public School Bus Services industry in the United States is unlikely to be materially impacted by import tariffs with imports accounting for a low share of industry revenue.
How may export tariffs affect the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States?
The Public School Bus Services industry in the United States is unlikely to be materially impacted by export tariffs with exports accounting for a low share of industry revenue.
Has the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States grown or declined over the past 5 years?
The market size of the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States has been declining at a CAGR of 0.1 % between 2021 and 2026.
What is the forecast growth of the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States over the next 5 years?
Over the next five years, the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States is expected to decline.
What are the biggest companies in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States?
The biggest companies operating in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States are National Express Group Plc, Student Transportation Inc. and Firstgroup Plc
What does the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States include?
Providing home-to-school bus transportation for students and Providing bus transportation for extracurricular activities are part of the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States.
Which companies have the highest market share in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States?
The company holding the most market share in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States is National Express Group Plc.
How competitive is the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States?
The level of competition is moderate and increasing in the Public School Bus Services industry in the United States.
Methodology
How are IBISWorld reports created?
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Our analysts start with official, verified and publicly available sources of data to build the most accurate picture of each industry. Analysts then leverage their expertise and knowledge of the local markets to synthesize trends into digestible content for IBISWorld readers. Finally, each report is reviewed by one of IBISWorld’s editors, who provide quality assurance to ensure accuracy and readability.
IBISWorld relies on human-verified data and human-written analysis to compile each standard industry report. We do not use generative AI tools to write insights, although members can choose to leverage AI-based tools within the platform to generate additional analysis formats.
What data sources do IBISWorld analysts use?
Each industry report incorporates data and research from government databases, industry-specific sources, industry contacts, and our own proprietary database of statistics and analysis to provide balanced, independent and accurate insights.
Key data sources in the US include:
- US Census Bureau
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics
- US International Trade Commission
Analysts also use industry specific sources to complement catch-all sources, although their perspective may focus on a particular organization or representative body, rather than a clear overview of all industry operations. However, when balanced against other perspectives, industry-specific sources provide insights into industry trends.
These sources include:
- Industry and trade associations
- Industry federations or regulators
- Major industry players annual or quarterly filings
Finally, IBISWorld’s global data scientists maintain a proprietary database of macroeconomic and demand drivers, which our analysts use to help inform industry data and trends. They also maintain a database of statistics and analysis on thousands of industries, which has been built over our more than 50-year history and offers comprehensive insights into long-term trends.
How does IBISWorld forecast its data?
IBISWorld’s analysts and data scientists use the sources above to create forecasts for our proprietary datasets and industry statistics. Depending on the dataset, they may use regression analysis, multivariate analysis, time-series analysis or exponential smoothing techniques to project future data for the industry or driver. Additionally, analysts will leverage their local knowledge of industry operating and regulatory conditions to impart their best judgment on the forecast model.
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