Volume of wood harvested in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2005-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the volume of wood harvested to decline by 2.1% in 2026-27 to reach 27.7 million cubic metres. This includes products like logs, sawn timber and wood panel. The Middle East conflict, beginning in March 2026, has disrupted demand, with log exports expected to fall, weighing on domestic harvest volumes. Weakening business confidence and elevated interest rates are also constraining demand from the construction division.Over the past five years, the volume of wood harvested has slumped due to troubles in both export and local demand. With almost a third of forestry output eventually destined for China, weak construction activity in that country has been a key determinant of lower wood volumes harvested in recent years. The number of dwelling consents issued has plummeted over the past few years, exacerbating drops in the volume of harvested wood. Nevertheless, China remains a vital market over time, accounting for over half of forestry product exports since 2018-19. This is largely due to China's ban on commercial logging of its natural forests, which accelerated demand for log imports.In 2020-21, harvested volumes bounced back quickly as overseas demand resurged after the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly from China and domestic construction activity performed better than expected following the end of national lockdowns. However, further outbreaks and lockdowns in 2021-22 contributed to harvested volumes falling. Inflationary pressures led to delays and cancellations as construction companies became unprofitable and projects unfeasible. However, harvest volumes in 2024-25 improved, supported by a recovery in business confidence amid easing interest rates. Export demand for logs and sawn timber also rose over this period. Volumes inched upwards through 2025-26, though the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in March 2026 constrained harvest volumes and was weighed on by weakness in domestic wood-processing sectors. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total volume of wood harvested in New Zealand to decline at a compound annual rate of 1.3% over the five years through 2026-27.