Real GDP growth in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1970-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts real GDP to rise by 1.8% in 2026-27, to $296.5 billion. New Zealand's unemployment rate is expected to peak throughout the early stages of 2026-27, with a tighter labour market supporting real GDP growth in the second half of the year. Despite the positive forecast for real GDP growth over the year, the inflationary impacts of the conflict in the Middle East will likely remain pertinent in the New Zealand economy well into the second half of 2026. With the Official Cash Rate (OCR) tipped to rise in 2026-27, the adoption of contractionary monetary policy by the RBNZ (Te Putea Matua) to fight price-based inflation would likely curtail some gains in real GDP.New Zealand's real GDP has increased over the past five years. Despite annual inflation reaching 7.2% in 2022, which drove the RBNZ to raise the OCR several times over 2022-23, the economy remained hot, displaying 4.0% real GDP growth across the year. Post-pandemic spending supported by the fiscal stimulus hangover and a rebound in tourism and net migration drove this trend. After border restrictions eased in 2022-23, New Zealand's tourism sector rebounded, leading to robust tourism earnings over the past few years. Notably, New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade highlighted travel export revenue rising above pre-pandemic levels in the March 2025 quarter, thanks to higher spending per visitor. However, the RBNZ's efforts to control inflation by raising the OCR from 25 basis points in September 2021 to 550 basis points in May 2023 stifled growth in real GDP across 2023-24 and 2024-25. In the latter, real GDP declined by 0.7%, marking the first decline since 2008-09. As inflationary pressures eased and the economy softened, the RBNZ cut rates several times between September 2024 and November 2025, bringing the rate to 225 basis points by the end of 2025-26. Lower interest rates supported consumer spending, stimulating the economy and strengthening real GDP growth in 2025-26, driving 1.3% annual growth throughout the year.Exports have risen over the period, thanks to strong overseas demand for New Zealand produce, such as dairy products and wine. The duty-free access of most New Zealand dairy products to China since 1 January 2022, alongside the New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) upgrade in January 2024, has contributed to export growth over the past few years. Moreover, free trade agreements with the UK (in force May 2023) and the EU (May 2024) have supported dairy and beef export growth, translating to real GDP growth over the period. More recently, the New Zealand-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force in August 2025, driving export demand from UAE importers in 2025-26 and 2026-27. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts real GDP to increase at a compound annual rate of 1.6% over the five years through 2026-27.