Population aged between 18 and 25

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged between 18 and 25 will increase by 2.8% during 2025-26, to total 546,160 people. Growth in net migration is the most important driver of growth in the population aged between 18 and 25 over the year. In particular, the return of international students to New Zealand's university system is a major contributor to growth in younger populations. International student numbers are expected to continue to rise during the year as they continue to climb towards pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, the number of 17-year-olds turning 18 is expected to exceed the number of 25-year-olds turning 26 and consequently leaving this demographic.

The New Zealand population aged between 18 and 25 has declined over the past five years. The key driver of this was the closure of New Zealand's international border from March 2020 to July 2022 because of the pandemic. In 2020-21 and 2021-22, many international students left New Zealand, prompting a drop in the number of New Zealanders that fall into this age group. Strong growth in migration levels can have a positive effect on the size of this age demographic, as many migrants are young people entering the country for job opportunities as well as educational studies. This meant that the border closures weighed heavily on this age groups share of the total population. International student numbers have risen by almost 150.0% over the two years through 2024 according to the latest government data, driving robust growth in this demographic since 2021-22. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the population aged between 18 and 25 will rise at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2025-26.