NZX 50 index in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2004-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the NZX 50 index to trend upwards by 4.2% in 2026-27, to average 13,596.9 index points. The escalation of the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz propelled global oil and petrochemical prices through early 2026, stoking near-term inflation and weighing on risk sentiment, which contributed to average monthly declines of 1.9% in March and 1.4% in April 2026. The index recovered as tensions eased, rising 0.6% in May and 2.2% in June, thanks to a drop in oil prices and near-term inflation pressures easing. A renewed escalation of Middle East tensions poses a key downside risk to this outlook, as a re-escalation could disrupt energy markets, dampening risk sentiment and weighing on the index in 2026-27. Although the index reached a peak close of 13,785.7 in early July (as of mid-July 2026), growth is expected to moderate relative to the prior year's 5.3%, due to New Zealand's monetary cycle. After the Official Cash Rate (OCR) fell to a 2.25% trough in November 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.5% in July 2026. In its July Monetary Policy Review, the Central Bank also signalled the potential for further rate hikes to return inflation to 2%. Rising rates are expected to weigh on the index's heavily weighted dividend-yielding healthcare, infrastructure and utilities stocks by diminishing the relative appeal of their yields, limiting scope for further re-rating over the remainder of the year.Real GDP has continued to appreciate for most of the period, contributing to a strong performance in the local sharemarket. The RBNZ cut interest rates to record lows in March 2020, a situation which persisted until October 2021, pushing up returns in 2021-22. This period of hyper-low interest rates, following an extended five-year period of low interest rates, led many investors to seek higher yields, pushing them towards equity markets. This dynamic was temporarily halted by a sharp rise in inflation and interest rates in 2022-23, which weighed on investment and returns in the equity market. As these conditions slowly stabilised and the market began pricing in the end of the tightening cycle, the index gradually recovered. The RBNZ then began cutting rates in August 2024, and the subsequent easing, which took the OCR from a 5.5% peak to a 2.25% trough, contributed to the re-rating of the index and its growth over the past few years. Index constituent heavyweights, including Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Infratil, have also underpinned the index's expansion over recent years. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the NZX 50 index to rise at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2026-27.