Domestic price of vegetables in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2000-2034)

IBISWorld projects that the domestic price of vegetables will reach 84.9 index points in 2026-27, a 3.3% decrease from the previous year. Domestic vegetable prices are expected to moderate as growing conditions improve and production recovers following recent weather-related disruptions that constrained supply. While Middle East tensions are anticipated to temporarily lift fertiliser and fuel costs, the impact is not expected to be as severe or prolonged as the disruption caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, allowing increased supply to place downwards pressure on prices.Domestic vegetable prices have surged over the past five years, resulting from extreme supply chain disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Farmers faced skyrocketing fuel and fertiliser costs as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict over 2021-22 and 2022-23. Additionally, vegetable consumption has increased over the past five years. Rising health consciousness among consumers has supported vegetable consumption and prices over the period. Growing environmental awareness has increased demand for locally produced and organic vegetables. While this has benefited growers supplying premium products, it has had only a limited influence on overall domestic vegetable prices, with imported vegetables continuing to primarily fill seasonal supply gaps rather than directly competing with most local production. However, fuel and fertiliser prices have normalised over the past three years from their previously elevated levels, easing upward pressure on vegetable prices.The level of annual rainfall and the quality of growing conditions, including rainfall timings as well as any extreme weather events, directly impact production and, therefore, play a large role in influencing domestic vegetable prices. For instance, the drought in 2022 weakened vegetable production in the North Island, where almost three-quarters of vegetable farms are located. Cyclones and floods also impacted vegetable production, particularly in Auckland and the Bay of Plenty. Following weather-related disruptions from Cyclones Gabrielle and Hale in 2023-24, favourable growing conditions in 2024-25 lifted vegetable production and eased supply constraints, placing downward pressure on prices. New Zealand's Fresh Fruit & Vegetable Industry Fresh Facts 2025 reported potato production increased from 185,000 tonnes in 2023-24 to 209,000 tonnes in 2024-25, contributing to improved domestic supply. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts that the domestic price of vegetables will increase at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2026-27.