Apparent fruit and vegetable consumption

IBISWorld forecasts apparent fruit and vegetable consumption to decrease by 2.0% in 2027, to reach 103.9 kilograms per capita. The decline in fruit and vegetable consumption in New Zealand can be attributed to several interconnected factors. According to data from Stats NZ, fruit and vegetables' annual price index has jumped 6.4% in March 2026, with fruit prices soaring 8.2% and vegetable prices rising 4.8%. According to the Treasury of New Zealand's February 2026 Economic Update, the cost of living is persisting despite slowing inflationary pressure. According to Stats NZ's report on household income and housing costs, 38.9% of mortgage-holding households reported their income as insufficient or just enough for everyday needs in the year ended June 2025, up 4.3% from the prior year. Meanwhile, 55.2% of renters agreed with the statements. Persistent increases in fruit and vegetable prices and mounting cost-of-living pressures could contribute to some households cutting back on pricier options like fruits and vegetables, which could slow per capita consumption.

The level of production and the quality of growing conditions play a major role in influencing domestic fruit and vegetable prices. This, in turn, can impact demand for fruit and vegetables in any given year. Many consumers are price-sensitive when it comes to food. They opt for lower-priced alternatives when prices get too high for certain fruits and vegetables. Over the past few years, volatile fluctuations in rainfall and extreme weather events like Cyclone Gabrielle have made fresh fruit and vegetable growing conditions more unstable. This trend has led to severe price volatility, influencing New Zealanders' consumption habits and contributing to volatile fruit and vegetable consumption patterns over the medium term. Notably, between 2022 and 2023, New Zealand witnessed a significant increase in fruit and vegetable consumption, propelled by resilient supply chains, shifts in consumer behaviour amid the pandemic, and higher eating-out costs. Notably, the rise of remote work and high dining out costs have motivated individuals to prepare meals at home, boosting demand for fresh ingredients and supporting fruit and vegetable consumption over the period.

Domestic prices of fruit and vegetables have soared over the past five years, which has constrained access for some households. Growing conditions have been a critical factor influencing the availability and pricing of fresh produce. Excessive rainfall and extreme weather conditions have challenged growers' ability to plan efficient planting cycles, affecting supply volumes. This situation highlights the delicate balance between availability and affordability. Still, the overall shift in consumer behaviour from eating out to meal prepping has supported increased fruit and vegetable consumption over the past five years. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts a positive outlook, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.7% in consumption through 2027.